SF Crime Rate Plummets: Why? How? Should We Believe it?

Will it Last? Is it Enough? Crime in our fair city has dropped dramatically in 2024. Compared to the same period last year, it’s now down an astounding 32 percent through September 29. Property crimes have plunged the most (42%), led by a steep decline in car break-ins, but violent crimes have also fallen substantially (14%). The biggest eye-catching drop is in murders, down a whopping 40 percent, with 24 murders to date, compared to 40 homicides last year.

The Chronicle recently reported that San Francisco is on track to have its lowest number of murders since 1960, when there were 30. (There are caveats, and you can read about them on the crime dashboard below, * which contains figures for all crimes tracked by the FBI.**) Why has Crime Dropped? Short answer: District Attorney Brooke Jenkins. Under Jenkins, the District Attorney’s Office has prioritized fighting open-air drug markets and holding drug dealers accountable. Since she became DA in July 2022, her office has filed over 1,700 felony narcotics cases, far more than her predecessor Chesa Boudin during an equivalent time period. As of August 17, 2024, the DA has been presented with 563 felony narcotics cases by the police and filed 483 cases this year. In the same time period, there have been 151 felony narcotics convictions and 90 guilty pleas to another case. Since the narcotics trade drives much property and violent crime in SF, this has had an impact on overall crime rates citywide. Equally important, DA Jenkins treats other non-narcotics felonies and misdemeanors seriously. Her actions have improved cooperation with the police, bettered morale and led to increased enforcement. But that’s a somewhat simplistic answer. While DA Jenkins’ good work is critical to the drop in crime, public safety is complicated, and there are many contributing factors to the progress we’ve made in crime reduction. But first, let’s sort out the real factors from misinformation. Not the answer Some pundits have suggested that crime rates are down because:

1) Poverty has gone down.

2) People are not reporting crime anymore; or,

3) The FBI/cops/legacy media/whomever are faking the data.

But unemployment and poverty are in fact increasing slightly in recent months, after the end of pandemic-era stimulus programs designed to help low-income people. While it’s true that many less serious crimes go unreported, does anyone seriously think that crimes were diligently reported in 2023 but are suddenly being ignored this year? And while it’s true that data collection and national standards managed by the FBI can change over time, the change in San Francisco crime rates is so great that minor revisions don’t explain our progress. Nobody is faking the data. Readers should also ignore national criminologists who know little about the San Francisco crime scene but are claiming that these may be random numbers, not a real trend, and that law enforcement and prosecution may have nothing to do with the drop in our local crime. Sure, it’s true that the small sample size means that the dramatic drop in murders may be the result of random effects, not necessarily a statistically significant, long-lasting trend. But the magnitude of the trend in overall crimes – 12,000 fewer crimes in the last nine months — means something real is going on here. That becomes even clearer when compared to other Bay Area and California cities where crime is increasing or decreasing at a slower rate or only in certain categories.

Other Reasons Crime is Down Cooperation Another major factor is increased cooperation between agencies. Mayor London Breed and Police Chief William Scott created the Drug Market Agency Coordination Center (DMACC), a joint center for coordinating efforts of local, state and federal law enforcement agencies. The multi-agency task force was established in San Francisco to combat open-air drug markets, particularly in the Tenderloin and SOMA. It coordinates efforts among agencies to disrupt drug dealing while also facilitating outreach for treatment and recovery services. In addition to the San Francisco Police Department (SFPD) and the DA’s Office, the California Highway Patrol, Sheriff’s Department, Department of Justice and even the California National Guard have put officers on the street or helped with investigations. Better Police Work Better policing has been an important factor, along with ongoing reforms.

Police techniques such as bait cars and increased SFPD emphasis on plainclothes and undercover operations have dramatically impacted car break-ins, which are down more than 50 percent over the previous year. (Note that car break-ins decreased about 17 percent nationally in the first quarter.) San Francisco also has an extraordinary clearance rate for solving murders in recent years. In 2023, SFPD's clearance rate for homicides was 94 percent, significantly higher than the state average of 60 percent and the national average of just over 50 percent. SFPD and Drones Catch Criminals! SF voters also approved Proposition E in the March 2024 election, allowing use of modern technology in crime fighting. The SFPD has already put the new law to use by tracking criminal suspects with drones and using other technology for surveillance of criminals. Two weeks ago, we suggested that you Watch Police Chief Bill Scott show how our police caught two criminal gangs in July: and then see another arrest in August: Video of Drone Footage of 8/22 Arrest. All three suspects in the latter arrest had firearms and the stolen property in their car was returned to their victims. https://vimeo.com/995148843 Since there are only a few car break-in gangs operating in the city, the combined pressure from the SFPD and the DA has had a real impact. There are other factors at play. The decline of COVID, the return to the workforce and schools and increased incarceration over pandemic-era norms are widely believed to have contributed in some areas. Police reforms in the wake of the murder of George Floyd and increased recognition that police are essential to maintain public safety could also play a role.

Finally, not to toot our own horn, Stop Crime Action and our sister organization Stop Crime SF have boosted anti-crime efforts through our Court Watch and Judge Report, and public education programs. Positive feedback loop: Cumulatively, all of these factors may be creating a positive feedback loop. One positive action (e.g., increased prosecution of drug dealing) reinforces others (reduced larcenies to pay for drugs), which work together to further decrease crime overall. Small initial changes (the arrest of two small car theft gangs) can be magnified and lead to larger effects over time. Is the drop in crime enough? Hell no, who cares about overall stats when you or a family member are a victim of a violent crime? If your car, residence or business is burglarized, chances are that you will still feel violated. I still remember years later explaining to our daughters after their Christmas presents were stolen by a thief from our home. We need to keep going! But there is another reason to keep working on crime reduction: recent positive changes may not stick. If we reduce the pressure, legislators, judges and other decision-makers may be desensitized to the community’s concern with public safety. Budgetary issues and other priorities may fill the public space. What happens next? Will SF crime stay down, or will it worsen again? Stay tuned for further reporting from Stop Crime SF. *https://www.sanfranciscopolice.org/stay-safe/crime-data/crime-dashboard. **Note that only ten crimes are shown on the dashboard above. As crime journalist and retired police officer Lou Barberini points out in this excellent article, drug dealing and carrying illegal guns are not included in the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting or SFPD’s dashboard data. They are included in arrest data, however.